Emerging Risk-based Methods for Design and Operation of Complex Systems
Mar 12, 2012
from 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM
|Where||ENGR. IV Bldg., Shannon 54-134|
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University of Maryland
Since its inception over 35 years ago, Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) has grown into a well-established technical discipline with wide range of applications in design, operation, and regulatory oversight of complex technological systems and processes. Powered by advanced methods in Reliability Engineering, Risk-informed activities have extended to project management (cost, schedule and performance), selection of alternative system designs, upgrades and life extension of existing systems, prognosis and health monitoring of complex systems, planning and conducting inspections, and assessment of significance of operational events. Many of the new applications, however, have pushed the current generation of PRA methods to their limit of effectiveness, despite significant methodological advancements over the past 20 years. The “classical” PRA method based on Event Tree/Fault Tree logic, for instance, has fundamental weaknesses in assessing risks emerging from the dynamic systems and processes, and in modeling complex systems that include software and human interfaces. Realistic assessment of operator error and organizational influences on risk, for instance, requires new modeling paradigms and use of “soft causal models”. Current methods also lack the necessary causal depth for effective operational assessments such as risk-significance determination of events, choice of safeguards, and design modifications. The talk will offer an assessment of the state of the art in risk analysis and presents views on the future directions of the discipline to address these deficiencies. Emerging methods will be briefly described including new generation of dynamic PRA methods, hybrid causal logic approach, and advanced methods for systems prognostics and health monitoring.
Dr. Ali Mosleh holds the Nicole J. Kim Eminent Professor of Engineering Chair and is the Director of the Center for Risk and Reliability at the University of Maryland. He was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 2010, and is a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis, recipient of several scientific achievement awards, and consultant and technical advisor to numerous national and international organizations. In 2004 Dr. Mosleh was appointed by President George W. Bush to the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, a position in which he continues to serve in the administration of President Barack Obama. He conducts research on methods for probabilistic risk analysis and reliability of complex systems and has made many contributions in diverse fields of theory and application. He has led many major studies on risk and safety of complex systems such as the Space Shuttle and International Space Station, nuclear power plants, commercial aviation, communication networks, and healthcare systems. On these topics he holds several patents, and has edited, authored or co-authored over 450 publications including books, guidebooks, and technical papers. He has chaired or organized numerous international technical conferences and is on the editorial board of several technical journals. Dr. Mosleh received his PhD in Nuclear Science and Engineering form UCLA.